Clinton pollster and political guru Mark Penn is a man who believes the demographics are destiny -- he can tell by your income, race, gender, occupation and place of residence exactly who you are. In his book "Micro Trends" he tells businesses the significance of you being in one of 70 demographic categories, including
"Impressionable Elites," "Caffeine Crazies," "Neglected Dads," "Unisexuals," "America's Home-Schooled," and "Late Breaking Gay".
On Amazon.com, his book is described as a triumph of "nano sociology."
Real social scientists described it as a triumph of bullshit, spinning too-small samples into ridiculous generalization. Unfortunately, Hillary Clinton has embraced his belief that demographics are destiny. If she loses, I think this is the biggest reason why.
Consider the two campaigns' differing approaches to demographic issues. The Clinton campaign thinks of "our" demos and "your" demos. Hillary started off with the African American vote firmly on her side, with many, if not most, prominent black leaders supporting her. However, once the Clintons started to lose their grip on that vote, they concluded that blacks were no longer a "Clinton demo" and they wrote off the black vote. They went so far as to say things that voters interpreted as slurs, but the campaign quite sincerely thought of as "demographic fact." Similarly, the Clintons said that Latinos don't vote for Blacks ("demos are destiny.") Clinton defended the statement as historical fact, even though it isn't (but rather more bullshit social science.)
Now, this all has a terrible political effect -- if you tell the "other guys demos" what you think of them, you reinforce the effect. If you tell caucus goers that they aren't "Clinton voters", then maybe they believe you. If you give up on VA because the demos aren't right, maybe Virginia voters take that to heart and, returning the favor, write you off. Maybe "Wait until Ohio" isn't the best slogan in Virginia. But if you believe in Penn's theories, where "place of residence" says who you are, this is all just a natural statement of fact.
Now, Obama could have played the same game, arguing that states with a large Latino vote "don't count." Could have said: "Well of course we lost CA, look at the percentage Latino vote." Could have said from the beginning, "well obviously we have no chance in Idaho or North Dakota." Undoubtedly, some nano-demo pollster could have explained to him why those folks just "aren't your demographic."
But that's not what Obama thought or what he did. Instead of blaming Latinos for not supporting him, instead of labeling Latinos as "Clinton voters", he (belatedly) stepped up his outreach to the Latino community. He doesn't say that the votes of women or Latinos "of course" go to Hillary -- he works every day to win those voters over, he denies that demos are destiny and therefore he makes continual gains among the groups that support him relatively less. The fact that Obama's life story denies that "demos are destiny" doesn't hurt.
Critics say that the message of "Unity" is an empty slogan. But slogans resonate better when there is something real behind them. If some group isn't won over, he reaches out, tries again. Notably, he doesn't typically insult them with some "nano demo"-specific pander, but rather tries to find ways to explain his broad ideas and themes to that group.
Clinton's campaign (not Hillary herself, but her strategy) chops and dices the electorate in "pro" and "con", "me" and "you". I am not saying that the Clintons are bad people for all of this, they really aren't. But I think that the "Penn Theory of Demographics" explains a bunch of statements that many interpret as racist, whereas the Clintons genuinely feel that they are just describing the world as it is.
I just read that the Clinton campaign believes that Ohio and Texas form a pro-Clinton "demographic fortress". That story is next to an update on the VA exit polls, showing Obama carrying a majority of woman voters, and narrowing the gap with white woman to 10 points. Meanwhile, African Americans finally all got the message that they aren't "Clinton voters." 90% went for Obama.
If Clinton's Demographic Fortress fails her, I still wish her the best of luck; she and her husband are great Americans and great Democrats. But if the current troubles in her campaign get blamed on Mark Penn, well that's just fine with me.