IN & NC Primary Results With Graphs!

1:08 AM EDT: MSNBC calls Clinton "apparent winner" in Indiana.

12:05 AM EDT: A note on outstanding Indiana counties: Hamilton is 99% reporting.  Obama might be able to pick up another 100 votes there.  Hancock is at 97%, where Clinton could pick up another 50 to 100 votes.  Marion is 98% in, where Obama could pick up another 1000 to 1500 votes possibly.  Monroe is only 67% in, where Obama could pick up another 2000 votes.

Then of course there is Lake County, which is at only 28% but coming in big for Obama, and Union County which, based on it's surrounding counties, should give Clinton about 1500 to 2000 votes.

Of course, this is all kind of guess work, but without Lake County, Obama could probably pick up about between 1000 to 2000 votes.  That's not much, but it may end up being the difference.

Here we are once again at another primary weekend.  However, this is bigger than Pennsylvania because:

a) There are more delegates at stake tonight (187 tonight vs. PA's 158), and

b) The 187 pledged delegates tonight make up 46% of the remaining pledged delegates and 28% of all remaining delegates which have not been pledged (or announced as supporting) a candidate.

After tonight, the grand Commonwealth of Puerto Rico becomes the biggest contest left, but we have to wait until June 7th for that one, as it is the final contest as well.

So, what are the goals of the two candidates tonight?

Obama
Obama really, really needs to win both contests tonight.  Not in the sense of delegate counts, as he'll still be in control in that regards after tonight, but to:

1. finally end this race (as the expectation seems to be that Clinton should drop out if she loses both)

2. Show that he can actually close the deal, which he wasn't able to do either on Super Tuesday II or in Pennsylvania, and

3. To not give superdelegates any reason to hesitate to endorse him.  Luckily for him, his loss in PA hasn't necessarily stopped the superdelegate endorsements for him, but would a double loss tonight do that?

Realistically, splitting the states is probably OK for Obama, but he would like tonight to be the final night of contested primaries.

Clinton
There isn't a lot that Clinton can gain delegate wise from these races as she's working on the superdelegates now, so her hope is to either split or sweep.

If she splits, she can still somewhat justify staying in, as the delegate margin will stay pretty constant, while if she sweeps, she can really turn up the rhetoric about how Obama has become unelectable and can't close out the deal.

Clinton is hoping to carve into Obama's popular vote lead (minus MI and FL), though she's at the disadvantage that Obama is favored in the larger state, so she'll need a considerably larger margin of victory in Indiana just to counter any Obama win in North Carolina in that regards.

Of course, the outcome Clinton can't have is being swept in both states.

Obama can mathematically win a majority of total pledged delegates tonight, but it's extremely unlikely to happen as he would need to win 136 (73%) pledged delegates tonight to do it. (Though, mathematically Clinton could catch Obama in pledged delegates tonight as well, but it would take a similar 151 (81%) delegates.)

Oh, and some numbers to look for tonight:

1. Total popular vote (minus Michigan and Florida) will pass 30 million tonight (we only need about 340,000)

2. We have a shot of hitting 35 million votes cast including Michigan and Florida (we need about 3.3 million votes cast tonight to hit that)

3. Obama will pass 1800 total delegates

4. Obama will pass 1500 pledged delegates

5. Obama could pass 1600 pledged delegates (he'll need to win 109, or just over 58% of delegates tonight)

5. Clinton will pass 1400 pledged delegates

6. Clinton could pass 1700 total delegates (she'll need to win 91, or 49% of delegates tonight)

In any case, enough with the blathering and on to the graphs!

May 6th Primary

Overall Delegates

Overall Popular Vote

•  Let's do this.

  not sure if people are going to announce anything at 6, but I'm posting this just in case

  by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:55:06 PM PDT

  •  spreadsheet for the geeks

    http://www.editgrid.com/...

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 02:56:44 PM PDT

    •  Yay Graphs!

      Pictures worth a thousand rec points...:D

      by jeremybloom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:07:48 PM PDT

      •  yes, and...

        strawberry rhubarb, King of Pies™

        by voila on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:50 PM PDT

        •  happy to rec, but ... just plain rhubarb... :)

          yummmmm

          by some other george on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:28:56 PM PDT

        •  Knotts Berry Farm

          They have the best Strawberry rhubarb.

          by SCREAMING MODERATE on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:32:23 PM PDT

          •  Chicago Cubs outfielder Felix Pie n/t

            by Pangloss on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:17:49 PM PDT

        •  Hell yeah!

          Best fucking pie ever!

          Strawberry rhubarb is not just the King of Pies, it is the Galactic Overlord of Pies.  

          Taste my pie perfection and despair!!!!

          But I do also enjoy a good Shoe Fly Pie.

          ...And coconut cream pie deserves mention.  And lemon meringue.

          Just gimme all your pies.

          by Stoy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:32:55 PM PDT

  •  You provide an awsome service!

    Thanks for doing these diaries this cycle. I love being able to see a complete breakdown

    by Gravedugger on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:02:29 PM PDT

  •  I've missed these.

    Thanks, FleetAdmiralJ! Don't know what we'd do without you.

    by adamschloss on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:13:53 PM PDT

  •  People, can we get some Recs to keep this up top?

    Please? I would have said "please" first, but there's no room in the subject line.

    And thank you.  FleetAdmiralJ's doing us all a great service.

    by pat208 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:45:38 PM PDT

  •  You coconut custard-

    ist!

    by wader on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:05:16 PM PDT

  •  I guess hillaryis44 was right!

    In North Carolina, it looks like Hillary may well be 44!  And Obama, 56!

    by Seneca Doane on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:43:04 PM PDT

    •  she won't reach 44. :-) n/t

      by onanyes on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:58:53 PM PDT

    •  Oh wow -

      just went over there.  

      Wow.

      by dirkster42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:19:12 PM PDT

•  I was waiting for you to show up!!!

  I'll have my wine, my television..and your diary. This evening will be good. Thanks :)

  by Morgan Sandlin on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:00:11 PM PDT

  •  heh, it almost didn't happen

    having cable modem/router issues

    A mystifying problem too.

    Cable Modem -> computer connection? fine

    Router -> computer connection? fine

    modem -> router connection? not getting IP, and I know the cord isn't the problem.

    if I go out of commission for a few minutes, it's probably because I'm playing with it again lol

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:01:50 PM PDT

    •  whew

      resetting both for the bazillionth time it seems finally seems to have solved the problem.

      by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:12:00 PM PDT

      •  I was going to say, it happens frequently with my

        cable modem. the ultimate solution is to unplug modem and router, wait ten seconds or so, plug in the modem, wait for it to come up, then plug in router.

        by pickandshovel on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:23:34 PM PDT

      •  same problem for the last two weeks....

        got a new router, that seems to help a bit!

        by RevenantX on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:47:56 PM PDT

    •  I recognize this problem:

      having cable modem/router issues

      A mystifying problem too.

      Cable Modem -> computer connection? fine

      Router -> computer connection? fine

      modem -> router connection? not getting IP, and I know the cord isn't the problem.

      Check your keyboard for latte spills.

      by pat208 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:49:20 PM PDT

  •  Crap! I knew I was forgetting something!

    
    ...going to get wine now! Be right back!

    "Help!!! I'm being Enlightened!" - TCFKNCS's avatar

    I always wanted to quote an avatar.

    by RhymesWithUrple on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:02:35 PM PDT

•  Thanks, but

  Love your charts and feel you're doing a great service here.  But these two talking points are just wrong. Obama doesn't need to win tonight, though it would be great to see this end that way.  And as for "closing the deal" -- what deal?  Clinton's been saying that for weeks, but it doesn't mean a damned thing.  There is no deal.  There are delegates and those delegates are counted up and some go to one person and some go to the other, and in the end the one who crosses the threshold with the most, wins.  Obama doesn't need to close anything.  It's the math.

  Obama really, really needs to win both contests tonight.

  Show that he can actually close the deal, which he wasn't able to do either on Super Tuesday II or in Pennsylvania,

  by Bindle on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:05:38 PM PDT

  •  Hillary needs to win both...

    or her SDs defect and her $$$ dries up.

    by cyncynical on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:08:01 PM PDT

    •  Agreed Obama really WANTS to win both, but...

      ... he doesn't NEED to win both. He'll probably lose IN but win NC.

      He will end up with a net plus in delegates. That leaves Hillary at the end of her tether. The media will try to keep the horse-race alive, but Obama doesn't NEED to win both. No way...

      by LearningCurve on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:26:22 PM PDT

  •  a couple of points

    1. I say realistically Obama only needs to split, but that he needs to sweep if he wants to end the race

    2. His in ability to "close the deal" on Clinton may raise concerns that he may be unable to against McCain as well.

    Yes, it's the math, and who crosses the finish line first wins, but that's a lot like the "majority + 1" philosophy that Obama people decry Clinton for following.

    By all accounts, there should be no reason why Clinton should have won another contest after the string of 10 straight wins or whatever that Obama had.  He either hasn't convinced people that the race is over, or even if people think it is, they're still voting for Clinton, which isn't a good sign for him.

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:11:02 PM PDT

    •  Uh

      She can't win.

      C. A. N. apostrophe. T.

      W. I. N.

      Can't.

      Win.

      Not possible.

      Unless "putsch = win."

      by The Termite on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:21:50 PM PDT

      •  Barack doesn't have a majority yet

        He's not the nominee until he gets 2,025 (or whatever number you choose)

        by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:23:28 PM PDT

        •  Okay

          But the Fat Lady's balcony aria is over, and the only hope you've got is that she slips into the orchestra pit during the curtain call and gets impaled on a bassoon.

          Nah guh happen.

          by The Termite on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:25:52 PM PDT

          •  No, not likely

            I'll agree that her chance is next to zero.  But until someone crosses the finish, it's not over.  At least that's how I see it.

            by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:27:34 PM PDT

            •  I think the view from Obama's point of view

              is how to end the race as quickly as possible, and there are basically two ways:

              1. Cut off all routes of escape.  She had one in Ohio/Texas, then Pennsylvania, and now again in Indiana, and he appears like he's going to let her escape all 3 times

              2. Wait until he hits a majority.  While this is pretty much a foregone conclusion barring a total collapse, it probably won't happen until June at the very least, and also risks him being the nominee but not being the candidate with the momentum.

              by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:33:27 PM PDT

    •  Closing the deal

      His in ability to "close the deal" on Clinton may raise concerns that he may be unable to against McCain as well.

      But why?  As similar as Clinton's talking points are to McCain's, the primary and the general aren't comparable.  The primary draws from a limited voter pool.  It presents a choice between two people with similar policy proposals.  It pits a man against a woman.

      There's no reason to believe that either Democratic candidate wouldn't get the vast majority of the other's votes in the general, and plenty of reason to believe that Obama, in particular, who has been running against McCain, would do better.

      The SDs know this.

      Again, thanks for all you do.  A big help to the community. Tipped and Recc'd.

      by Bindle on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:22:27 PM PDT

    •  if O wins NC by more than HRC wins IN

      which looks likely now...

      then we have to take that as a good split and move on.

      OTOH, if Indiana tightens up and gets close, that would be VERY good for the O team.

      by TrueBlueMajority on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:40:30 PM PDT

      •  he's already winning the combined pop vote

        by 80,000

        by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:41:20 PM PDT

  •  Hillary needs to net 50 delegates tonight

    have a chance at the nomination.

    Ain't gonna happen, but that's what she needs.

    by djs on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:20:09 PM PDT

  •  Obama CLOSED the deal...

    in the contests after super Tuesday where he built an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates.  He's been sitting on his lead ever since.  He will be the nominee and our next president.  It's over.  

    by David in Burbank on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:13:47 PM PDT

    •  Ohio, PA, and presumably IN

      would seem to suggest otherwise (as to closing the deal)

      If it were over, or if everyone thought it's over, why is she still winning?

      by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:15:32 PM PDT

      •  Smart of you not to include Texas

        She is not winning.  She is behind in the delegate count and can not catch up. The deal is CLOSED.

        by David in Burbank on Wed May 07, 2008 at 08:48:57 PM PDT

•  Barack the VOTE! n/t

  by califdem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:07:00 PM PDT

•  I like

  Aunt Bea's pie

  by Floyd T Barber on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:07:49 PM PDT

  •  Lemon Meringe was not a choice.

    My best friend made me one for my birthday last month.  Hmmmmm.

    But I voted for 3.14 even tho is spelled pi.

    by dogheaven on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:38:04 PM PDT

•  Bad pies

  All of them subtract out "some caucus states."  Where is the legitimacy in subtracting any caucus states?  The only point in making the popular vote argument is to guilt the supers out of backing someone who a majority of voters prefers -- why, then, pretend that people in those caucus states didn't vote?

  by DelRPCV on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:11:24 PM PDT

  •  because no official pop vote total is available

    if it were available, it would include it.  I've included everything that's available.

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:13:04 PM PDT

•  I knew it! the colors don't seem right!

  what kind of charts are these???
  the colors are totally off.
  therefore, they are suspect.
  you can't have good charts or graphs without a proper color scheme.
  ;-)

  by pickandshovel on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:21:23 PM PDT

•  Well looks like the exit polls are following their

  
  typical pattern over at HuffPo.

  Shows a squeeker in IN and an Obama landslide in NC.

  "Help!!! I'm being Enlightened!" - TCFKNCS's avatar

  I always wanted to quote an avatar.

  by RhymesWithUrple on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:27:06 PM PDT

•  I would like to discuss the obvious

  anti-rhubarb faction here at dkos!

  by arielle on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:28:06 PM PDT

  •  btw just have to tell you...

    ... I love your user name!  Of course, I'm kinda biased as it's my daughter's name too.

    "Help!!! I'm being Enlightened!" - TCFKNCS's avatar

    I always wanted to quote an avatar.

    by RhymesWithUrple on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:30:56 PM PDT

    •  I actually use the boy's spelling

      in real life but someone here was already using it and I wasn't creative enough to come up with something cute!

      But it is my actual name!  (Just don't sing Under the Sea to me! LOL)

      by arielle on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:33:06 PM PDT

      •  You have my word - no singing from me!

        
        My daughter was born a week or two after the movie was released (which I was oblivious to at the time).  I named her for the meaning of the word - Arielle means "Lion of God" in Hebrew.

        I've spent her whole life with people asking "Oh - did you name her after the movie?"  Poor kid, she's gotten pretty good at ignoring it though.  :-)

        "Help!!! I'm being Enlightened!" - TCFKNCS's avatar

        I always wanted to quote an avatar.

        by RhymesWithUrple on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:53:44 PM PDT

        •  Mine is also for the Hebrew.

          Even though the character of Ariel in The Tempest was actually male, the first roses my husband ever gave me he signed the card "Prospero".

          When we married I gave him a wedding band I had engraved with, "Thy thoughts I cleave to."

          Using the male spelling I get a lot of stuff addressed to "MR. Ariel...."

          Thank G-d my last name isn't "Fleischer"!!!

          by arielle on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:19:33 PM PDT

  •  strawberry shubarb!

    by empathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:02:05 PM PDT

    •  I'm a purist.

      I prefer my rhubarb unadulterated by berries!  Heh!

      by arielle on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:37:09 PM PDT

      •  Hehe..

        When I was a kid the stuff grew out in the yard.  The plants were several feet high, and we always had more than we could eat.

        Every so often I would eat a piece of raw rhubarb.  Then again, my brother and I would sometimes eat raw gooseberries right off the vine.

        by ericy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:54:50 PM PDT

•  Thanks FleetAdmiralJ

  I love your graphs! It makes election night so much more fun, and colorful.

  by dansk47 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:32:39 PM PDT

•  Several Halloweens ago

  

  by arielle on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:33:46 PM PDT

  •  e!

    by pat208 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:59:59 PM PDT

•  Go...

  Key Lime!
  :)=

  by SJerseyIndy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:39:39 PM PDT

•  Heterosexist pole!

  What about pie smeared over, say, The Skipper?
  Also, you forgot lemon merengue.

  by SensibleShoes on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:00:07 PM PDT

  •  the skipper?

    i suppose he's better than mr. howell...but why not the professor?

    by guyermo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:28:58 PM PDT

    •  Didn't FAJ include Banana Creme?

      by viriginia liberal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:37:42 PM PDT

•  Terry McAuliffe is a tool....

  
  And Chris Matthews is just bloody useless. GAH!

  "Help!!! I'm being Enlightened!" - TCFKNCS's avatar

  I always wanted to quote an avatar.

  by RhymesWithUrple on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:06:50 PM PDT

•  just got back

  from walking with my wife over to the polls in our neighborhood.  This morning when I voted at 6:45 AM, I was number 13.  This evening when she voted at 6:30 PM, she was number 548 (both for Obama).  

  She heard a poll worker say if they topped 600 it would be the highest turnout the site had ever seen (I'm not sure if he meant just primaries or general elections...)  We live in a diverse neighborhood, where we have a couple of projects, and some middle income, progressive minded younger neighborhoods, in the heart of West Asheville.

  by c0wfunk on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:07:13 PM PDT

•  Called NC for Obama

  Yea!  CNN just called NC for Obama... 3 seconds after polls closed. Gotta be big!

  by MomDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:31:51 PM PDT

•  And Brokaw says

  he won pretty much across the board.  Fired up!  Ready to Go!

  by demkat620 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:35:14 PM PDT

•  this doesn't make sense...

  Barack Obama defeated Hillary Rodham Clinton on Tuesday in the North Carolina primary, ensuring a split decision in the last two big-delegate states left in their marathon race for the Democratic presidential nomination, NBC News projected.

  In the other state, Indiana, the race was too early to call.

  from msnbc  .. if the other race is too early to call, how does Barack winning one of them "ensure a split decision"??  I know it's quick copy, but come on, try and maintain an open mind until some results are in!

  by c0wfunk on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:39:08 PM PDT

•  Obama *needs* to win both?

  Uh, he's in the lead.  It should read:Clinton really needs to win both or she's going to look like a McCain plant.  As it is, if she is goign to win the nomination, she needs to win both by around 18%.  (the CNN delegate prediction toy suggests that for her to win, she needs to sweep ALL the remaining races by a margin of 59%-41%

  You should lay off the KoolAid

  by Guinho on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:51:38 PM PDT

  •  it appears

    you failed to read the 2nd sentence n the paragraph

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:54:52 PM PDT

•  Always great help Fleet! nt

  by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:57:22 PM PDT

•  Just a note

  for the 14% Gilligan's Island poll: I considered that answer, but that was 40 years ago. Now if I could travel back in time...

  by oklacoma dem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:58:01 PM PDT

  •  no no

    the REAL Gilligan's Island...as in the reality show.

    REAL kossacks know that I'm talking about ;)

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:59:42 PM PDT

•  What in the world is up with Tippecanoe County?

  CNN has it 100% reporting, with turnout less than 1000! (521-421 Obama.)

  For comparison, Kerry won 21-22,000 votes there in 2004.

  According to its Wikipedia page, it has a population of 150k. In comparison, Boone has a population of ~50k, and has ~7k voters already with 32% reporting.

  This is either because of massive vote suppression (new voter id laws), or a bug in the voting machines

  by Michiganliberal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 04:58:56 PM PDT

  •  or a bug

    in whatever is saying that 100% is reporting...

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:00:30 PM PDT

    •  That too

      It's went for Obama so far, so we can probably expect the margin to narrow considerably as the bug is fixed.

      For reference, Poblano predicted a 20% margin for Obama there, and a margin of ~4k votes

      by Michiganliberal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:01:39 PM PDT

  •  Link to Tippecanoe results

    Link

    Still not accurate.

    by wanderindiana on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:23:19 PM PDT

    •  Tippecanoe in?

      President D DEM
      Total
      Number of Precincts 96
      Precincts Reporting 96 100.0 %
      Times Counted 21467/0
      Total Votes 21352
      Hilary Clinton 8857 41.48%
      Barack Obama 12495 58.52%

      by wanderindiana on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:46:00 PM PDT

•  Porter County stayed open until 7PM CDT

  Link

  by wanderindiana on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:11:54 PM PDT

•  Lake County IN results page

  Link

  Has no results, still, last post was at 12:33 p.m. today. Check link for updates.

  by wanderindiana on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:20:22 PM PDT

•  Hillary needed to win NC by 100% of the vote ...

  ... and Indiana by 50% of the vote. She fell short of those needs.

  

  +

  

  =

  

  by Tortmaster on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:28:49 PM PDT

•  Hair pie!

  Marianne from Gilligan's Island will do, even at her age.

  by viriginia liberal on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:34:53 PM PDT

•  Thanks, yet again FAJ.

  I've said it before, but your charts make us need-bright-colorful-visuals types very happy.

  by CJB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:52:50 PM PDT

•  RHUBARB pie! n/t

  by tdub on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:00:41 PM PDT

•  clenching the GOP nomination?

  You clinch your nomination but you clench your buttocks... Oh, wait. Nevermind. We are talking about Republicans here, aren't we?

  by londubh on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:34:09 PM PDT

  •  well, you know how it goes

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:36:25 PM PDT

•  Sources?

  First, I totally dig the graphs.  This is fantastic.

  Second, I'm curious... what is the source of the data for the "Overall Popular Votes"?  Specifically, the different combinations of totals with and without Michigan and Florida?  

  by ScienceRocks on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:53:59 PM PDT

  •  sources

    For everything before tonight, I've gotten my info from http://www.thegreenpapers.com

    I just have a big spreadsheet with all the data for each state and just total it all on that...

    As for tonight, popular vote is from CNN, delegates form CBS

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:56:52 PM PDT

    •  Thanks.

      This is a fantastic service you are doing by tracking these numbers.

      by ScienceRocks on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:00:10 PM PDT

•  Bye, bye Hilly!

  by noofsh on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:57:08 PM PDT

•  Nice, but why not work on presentation.

  You've been doing this for a long time this primary season.  If you want to make the most of your fame heading into the general election, I suggest learning how to present your data more effectively.  There are some fundamentals about visualizing data that, unfortunately, most people don't realize.

  -Pie charts are pretty and popular, but they suck from the standpoint of presenting data.  People are very good at judging linear distances, but horrible at judging areas.  If you want to compare relatively proportions, use bar charts.

  -May 6th delegates won by state: Why are these bars of the same length?  This completely obscures the fact that NC has more delegates! Why not do a stacked bar graph where the length of the bar represents the number of delegates in the state?

  -Pie charts don't scale nicely, so you have no way of comparing the results tonight to the overall delegate count.

  I suggest reading several books, including Cleveland's Visualizing Data and Tufte's work, to learn how you could greatly improve this.

  by sculler78 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:57:27 PM PDT

  •  Tufte Rocks!

    by ScienceRocks on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:01:15 PM PDT

  •  Get to work sculler,

    If you can do better.

    I appreciate this work.

    by platypus60 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:20:11 PM PDT

•  Lake County = 285K Registered Voters Out There

  This is the second largest county in Indiana, with a large AA population. 0% reporting here.  

  In addition, 9% remaining to report in Indianapolis.  Hamilton county going Obama 61-39% with 65% remaining to report, and Monroe County is going 67-23% for Obama with 75% still to report.

  AMAZING!!!

  by The Knute on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:59:34 PM PDT

  •  Hamilton is a big win tonight!

    This was a Clinton stronghold. There are between 10-12 Clinton super donors here who maxed out in January 2007. So she had a strong base in this county to begin with and the state Dem honchos endorsed her in October 2007. This county was hers to lose and she has. Big time.

    The precincts that we've seen reporting are blowing her out of the water 2:1 and that includes some Operation Chaos activity in the polls I was monitoring as a Dem pollwatcher.

    I doubt that we'll actually win Indiana, but at 10:30 PM this is by no means over since Hamilton hasn't reported yet.

    I want to see more about Obama winning informed crossover Republicans instead of this old story about Clinton taking the low-information, working class voters who are being manipulated with attack ads. Geez.

    There's a big story here that no one is talking about.

    by annan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:41:11 PM PDT

•  Russert Reports: 300K Votes Out w/35K Gap n/t

  by The Knute on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:08:34 PM PDT

  •  now if they would just come in...

    by the way, out of nearly 34 million votes cast, Obama is within 8 thousand of Clinton if one includes Michigan and Florida.

    Think this hasn't been close? lol

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:34 PM PDT

•  Obama wins by Hillary rules!!

  Note that last pie chart - Obama is now winning the popular vote by about 20,000 even if we do count Florida and Michigan and don't count those four caucus status. How awesome is that? :-D

  Shirley Schmidt: A Democrat.

  by Jyrinx on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:50:57 PM PDT